Federal Reserve Beige Book

The US economy shows moderate growth: expansion was recorded in nine of the twelve districts, while no significant changes were observed in the remaining three. In most regions, growth rates remain weak, and consumer spending has hardly changed.

The manufacturing sector is the main driver of the economy, showing growth in seven districts. However, the labor market remains weak: employment grew moderately in only three regions, slightly in five, and remained unchanged in four.

Five districts report staff reductions or delayed hiring. Companies plan to create fewer jobs due to the implementation of artificial intelligence, which further constrains the development of the labor market.

Inflationary pressure is intensifying across all Federal Reserve districts. Prices are rising at a high rate in three districts and at a moderate rate in eight. Price growth accelerated in four districts compared to the previous report.

• High oil prices affected all 12 districts
• Expensive diesel fuel increases supply chain costs
• Additional pressure comes from tariffs, raw materials, and insurance

Consumers are resisting price increases, causing business profits to shrink. Companies are forced to selectively raise prices, offer discounts, and cut costs to maintain competitiveness.

Businesses expect further price increases in the coming months. The main factors are expensive energy sources and tariffs, especially after the renegotiation of existing contracts.

The outlook for the coming months remains positive, but most companies expect only weak economic growth. The main risks remain inflation, trade policy, and geopolitical uncertainty.