Start of US Earnings Season: Impact of AI on Markets

On October 13, the US earnings season begins, traditionally accompanied by increased volatility in stock and crypto markets. Stronger financial results support risk appetite, while weak profit trends reinforce corrective sentiments.

FactSet analyst expectations show record optimism: expected S&P 500 company profits for the third quarter are +29.5% year-on-year, higher than initial forecasts of +26.7%. Analysts raised EPS forecasts by +1.4%, with the number of positive revisions reaching the highest level since data collection began in 2006.

The Technology Sector is the Main Driver of Growth, Showing Expected Profit of Around +65% Year-on-Year

Goldman Sachs notes that nearly half of the index's profit growth in 2026 is linked to investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure, as major tech companies increase capital expenditures on data centers.

Key Question for the Market Remains the Ability of Huge AI Costs to Transition from Investment Stage to Sustainable Productivity and Profit Growth

Investors will closely monitor margins, capital expenditure volumes, and management forecasts for 2027, especially in the big tech and semiconductor segments.

Despite high optimism, significant risks exist, including slowing AI spending growth rates, high interest rates and borrowing costs, and rising business energy costs. High expectations are already partially priced into stock values against historical S&P 500 highs.