Quantum Threats to Ethereum: Vulnerability Statistics and Protection Plans

At the Devcon 8 conference, Ethereum Foundation researchers presented data on quantum threats and artificial intelligence impacting network security. The main conclusion: 72% of the total ETH supply is potentially vulnerable to future attacks.

Projections for the emergence of break-resistant computers

The probability of creating quantum machines capable of breaking modern cryptography is estimated at 10% by 2029. The year 2032 is cited as the primary milestone for technology development.

Artificial intelligence significantly accelerates progress in this field. Over the past few months, scientists have managed to reduce the number of required qubits by 30%, and cut the execution time of Shor's algorithm by three times.

AI can break cryptography even without using quantum computing. New mathematical discoveries cast doubt on the fundamental security assumptions of Ethereum.

Vulnerability of the current supply and solutions

Nearly three-quarters of all ETH coins are at risk. These assets are linked to addresses whose public keys are already exposed in the blockchain.

Ethereum is actively preparing to transition to post-quantum cryptography. The plan for completing the migration of network security is scheduled until December 2028.

There are claims that US intelligence agencies have accumulated data on cryptographic vulnerabilities and concealed some AI lab discoveries. At present, there is no independent confirmation of these allegations.