AI Giant Stock Dilution Threatens Financial Crisis and Bitcoin Growth

Binance founder Arthur Hayes warns in his essay "D is for Dilution" of the risks of a global financial crisis due to a crash in the stocks of the largest AI companies. Mass sales by employees and early investors after going public will create enormous pressure on share prices.

Risk of an AI Market Crash

SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI face the threat of significant shareholder dilution. Following an IPO, mass insider selling could lead to a sharp drop in stock value.

• SpaceX: The number of shares in free float has increased by 50%, with another 8.6 billion shares expected to be unlocked by June 2027. A potential merger with Tesla could further increase dilution.

• Anthropic: Initial IPO investors will face 83% dilution by June 2027. To maintain share prices, the market would need approximately $1.2 trillion in new capital at a company valuation of $1.5 trillion.

• OpenAI: The company is attempting to raise $20 billion at a valuation of $1.25 trillion instead of the initial $30 billion at $1.5 trillion. An analogous scenario with downward pressure on stock prices after listing is expected.

The main threat comes from debt markets. AI companies need hundreds of billions of dollars to build data centers. A fall in stock prices would undermine creditor confidence, lead to higher borrowing costs, and make financing for the entire industry more difficult.

Impact on the Cryptocurrency Market

US banks are actively lending to the AI sector and financing securities operations. If the investment boom slows down, bank balance sheets will begin to shrink, leading to a decrease in dollar liquidity and increased pressure on cryptocurrencies.

Early warning signs have already appeared: last week, the combined balance sheet of the US banking system contracted. However, a large-scale crisis in the AI industry will force the Federal Reserve and other central banks to intervene and launch a new wave of money printing.

According to Hayes, subsequent regulatory intervention will create favorable conditions for the growth of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, as the printing press will become a powerful driver for digital assets.