Bitcoin Bear Market Over: Galaxy Digital Forecast

Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, stated that the BTC bear market ended as early as June 2026. Bitcoin is now in an accumulation phase, which historically precedes new growth periods.

Key technical and fundamental signals indicate a trend reversal

• Bottom passed.* BTC held the key 200-week moving average and recovered above the 50-week.
• Sellers are leaving.* Major speculative funds have reduced their BTC positions by more than half, while long-term investors have mainly held onto their assets.
• ETFs are accumulating BTC again.* Since the June low, US spot funds have purchased an additional 87,000 BTC ($7b).

Historical context also supports the bullish scenario. In 2015 and 2018, institutional investor attention shifted from Bitcoin to blockchain technologies. After that, BTC grew 83 and 20 times respectively to reach the highs of the next cycles.

Macroeconomic factors enhance the appeal of assets with limited supply. The US national debt has exceeded $40 trillion, and annual interest expenses have reached $1.28 trillion.

Galaxy analysts believe that BTC can return to $125,000 and higher. However, if it remains below $76,540 for a week without recovery within a month, it will be a signal to potentially revise the forecast.