Arthur Hayes' Forecast: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the Fate of Altcoins

Arthur Hayes shared his forecasts for the cryptocurrency market and macroeconomics. The expert expects an acceleration in money supply, which will support Bitcoin and gold.

Macroeconomic Factors and Monetary Policy

In the next 6–12 months, an acceleration of money supply expansion is expected in China. This should provide support for Bitcoin and gold prices. Central banks will increase their gold reserves.

Hayes considers companies like OpenAI and Anthropic to be unprofitable. He expects them to be saved through government support. Large-scale monetary expansion will boost Bitcoin's potential.

The quantum threat to Bitcoin is real, but there is a lot of speculation surrounding it. Solutions are already being worked on, and market participants exaggerate the danger depending on their positions.

Prospects for Individual Cryptocurrencies and Projects

Most altcoins are doomed. Hayes sees only 5–10 attractive assets. Investors prefer projects with real revenue and benefits for holders.

• Ethereum — the favorite among major cryptocurrencies. Growth above $5,000 is expected.
• Hyperliquid — too obvious a bet due to high competition.
• Ethena and Uniswap could benefit from the tokenization of banking services.

A network called FLOP is being developed to pay for AI agent computations. According to forecasts, its value will exceed Bitcoin's market capitalization.

Stablecoins threaten national currencies of developing countries. The spread of digital dollars via messengers will weaken central bank control. The US will see increased demand for government debt.