VanEck Forecast: Bitcoin Growth to $500k and $3 Million

VanEck anticipates Bitcoin reaching $500k in the current or next cycle. Matthew Siegel, Head of Digital Asset Research, shared long-term forecasts.

Long-Term Forecast and Volatility

In the firm's long-term model, Bitcoin could reach $3 million by 2050 if it captures a significant share of global trade, including energy markets. The market bottom has already formed, and investors are more willing to buy dips. BTC's correlation with gold is at a multi-year high.

Bitcoin is roughly three times more volatile than gold but wins on mobility: gold must be physically transported between countries, whereas BTC can be sent cheaply anywhere in the world.

Risks and Regulation

Quantum computing remains a real risk for Bitcoin that needs to be addressed in the coming years, but this is not a reason to sell the asset. Additional regulation is no longer needed for the coin—ETFs solved the problem of unregulated storage, and a significant portion of leverage has moved to regulated markets.

Investments in Miners

VanEck is separately betting on Bitcoin miners. Due to the AI boom, their access to electricity has become a scarce resource. Some companies have already signed power contracts for 10–20 years.